- Oct
- 06
- 2008
- 2:05 PM
How Volatile Is The Stock Market, In Historical Perspective?
- By: Ray Pellecchia
- File Under: Miscellaneous, NYSE
In the last few weeks we have seen a number of swings of hundreds of points in the market indexes. How does the current/recent volatility rank in historical terms? Here are two perspectives.
Dr. Brett Steenbarger, measuring the dfferences among daily highs, lows and closes of the S&P 500 cash index, finds October 2008 to be the third most volatile month/pair of months since 1962. "As we can see, the current level of price volatility is not without precedent, but is at very significant levels..." Dr. Steenbarger, an author and psychologist who tracks market patterns and counsels traders, says on his blog.
Bill Rempel, a value investor and blogger, examines the number of 2-percent-move days in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. On the S&P measure, 2008 has the eighth-highest volatility since 1950. On the Dow measure, 2008 comes in at 30th highest since 1900 -- not as high as the others, but not insignificant, and bear in mind the Dow is a very different market indicator than the S&P 500.
Any way you slice it, today's volatility, as Dr. Steenbarger put it, appears to be "...at very significant levels..."


Comments
May I suggest, for New York Stock Exchange to get one of the Senator of the Con-gress to hit the Bill to open NYEC market consequentially, every day, to enhance the trust in the market Trade, with short statements to definite in clear expression on the bailout advance to the US economy and the worlds trustiness of US economy.
by Abdulla M. Almohdar on October 6, 2008 3:02 PM
Speaking to volatility...
A NYSE floor broker, from Rosenblatt securities was interviewed on CNBC, and called into question the new electronic rules.
To summarize, he was speaking about the buyer of last resort. In the past this was always the specialist, and as the market model moved toward speed, his/her role changed or diminshed. As a result, the structure on the floor changed, and volatility increased tremendously. He also seemed the think that this very change in structure is an issue most are not speaking about as a potential reason for some added stress to markets. I could not agree more. To say the least, Hybrid/NMS have had some intended and unintended consequences to the way trading is conducted nowadays.
(I tried my best to summarize his points accurately, from a television interview a couple hours ago with 4 positions on)
by jt on October 6, 2008 3:39 PM
Ray,
In 1928 the Dow divisor was 16.67. When I started in the business 30 years ago, the divisor was also a real divisor when it was well above 1. Now it is a multiplier at 0.12. For every little move in each Dow stock, the divisor accentuates the Dow's overall move. All this is a result of stock splits and replacements in the DJIA components. A one point move in DJIA components makes for a much larger move in the Average than just 20 years ago. In short, you are losing or making a lot less money for every 500 point DJIA move than yesteryear.
by Bart Ward on October 6, 2008 4:31 PM
I suggest that until the Nov elections this market will be unsteady. Why this is this? We have two persons one of which has no experience in the markets and one that does. I like many people have bought stocks that has a sound base, the rest is in cash. That will possibly lose some value.
by D H Stubbs on October 6, 2008 6:54 PM
Hey Ray,
Write an article about how the stock price of Nasdaq has accomplished to pass the stock price of the NYSE! Stock Prices tell the ENTIRE story and it will be interesting to hear your view on why the NYSE Euronext stock price is about to fall below the Nasdaq stock price! NDAQ appreciates faster and falls slower than NYX! 99% of the time this means it is a better company, contrary to all your posts!... Any questions?
by Mark T. on October 7, 2008 2:14 PM
Mark -- Oh no, you've got me there! Yes, stock price is the one criterion of which company is "better," and you obviously have a crystal ball as to which stock is going where! Yes, just disregard any other criteria, like market cap, which would appear to indicate NYX as far more valuable a company; what does market cap know? Woe is poor me.
Seriously, please forgive me, I must not be making myself clear. I'm writing about the markets, products and services of NYSE Euronext, and on occasion, how those offerings stack up to the competition's. I'm not here to write about whose stock price is going where, as I don't think that means very much (if at all) to our customers and prospective customers, plus I have no expertise in it.
I have never said -- and never will -- that our company is "better" than another, contrary to what you say above. But I have indeed stated when I believe that one of our markets or features is better than that of competitors, and I back that up with facts.
If you want to talk stock price, I'd suggest one of the online message boards. If you want to talk markets and services, I always welcome you to do that here.
And no, no questions, thanks very much. Thanks for writing, Mark.
by Ray Pellecchia on October 7, 2008 2:46 PM
Hindsight is always 20/20, but why should America as a whole have to bail out big banks doing bad business? If the banks can't cover the loans they are giving out, that's just bad business. Every red-blooded American works hard for their money. If they lose their jobs, I understand it's not good for the economy, but why then is it the responsibility of those of us fortunate enough to have a job and pay taxes to have to pay more taxes to bail out companies that made poor choices? The "Bailout" put an end to America being a supply and demand economy and turned us toward the road of being a socialism. WHAT HAPPENED TO AMERICA?
by Chris on October 7, 2008 5:36 PM
Ray,
I'd like to speak to Mark T's point for a second.
In time, both stocks will be worthless. Give them, oh, two or three more weeks.
-DT
by Dinosaur Trader on October 7, 2008 9:24 PM
Thanks, DT. I feel the love washing over me like, um, well, er... there are just no words.
Me, I hope we all (even Nasdaq!) survive this awful market long enough to laugh about it in our old age. I'm no spring puppy but I'm not ready for extinction, to borrow your theme a bit.
Hey, while I have you: when is DinoSister making a return visit? She's my favorite guest blogger of all time.
by Ray Pellecchia on October 7, 2008 11:16 PM
Ray,
I will let Dinosister know she has a fan. I'm sure that once the market quiets a bit she will embarrass me with another post or two.
Crazy market... I'd love to get some color on what it's like on the floor right now.
-DT
by Dinosaur Trader on October 8, 2008 5:39 PM
DT -- Crazy indeed. I won't speak for the traders, but from my perspective, lately the floor has been more intense and energized than it's been in months. There's been a definite uptick in the noise level.
I'm usually there for the open and the close, and the faces I see at those times are driven, intently watching and working the news stocks. There's a sense that the news is huge every day, and that it's all around us, from the feds, from the companies, from overseas, all at the same time. People are walking a little faster and talking both a little faster and a little louder. The sound of a broker tapping a stylus on his wireless order-management device is a little more staccato. Brokers seem like they've got a lot more orders to work, or bigger orders. There are more and bigger crowds around specialists. It feels like people are in overdrive.
I thought that the huge gyrations in the market might have numbed people a bit after a month of this, day after day, but I think it's done just the opposite and renewed their sense of purpose, that what they're doing is important to their customers.
You ought to come in sometime when you have a day off. Would be happy to give you the nickel tour.
by Ray Pellecchia on October 8, 2008 6:15 PM
Ray,
How busy was the floor today?
by Scott M on October 9, 2008 4:08 PM
EXCELLENT.
NOTHING the gov does can stop this PLUNGE.
In fact, every additional sneaky bailout ploy they use can only accelerate the plunge, just like pouring gas on a fire.
What you are seeing, as a direct result of congress' obscene 'bailout' act, is EVERY legitimate business and decent individual who has held stock BAILING OUT of this totally CORRUPT market, leaving behind ONLY the worst looters.
NO recovery of any kind will happen until ALL these pigs are GONE.
If it takes a complete monetary collapse too, then so be it.
The average American has nothing to lose anymore, and they are expressing their fury
YES, here is the BAIL OUT the country really needs!
WE THE PEOPLE are BAILING OUT of the criminal, corrupted bush regime and their crooked markets.
by Stephen Minnich on October 9, 2008 6:32 PM
Ray,
I loved that description... very nicely done, thank you.
I would love to get in there. Perhaps near the holidays when my office has their party, I'll get in touch. They're right on Broad somewhere.
And as for the "nickel" tour, I know my blog is third-tier, that we're about to enter a new Depression and that our currency is worthless, but we can do a little better than that, no?
-DT
by Dinosaur Trader on October 9, 2008 7:50 PM
Scott M. -- I was on the floor for the close, and the mood seemed subdued, but the volume was very heavy. There were big sell imbalances, and a lot of stabilizing interest came in to respond; some stocks with big imbalances actually closed higher as a result.
I got to the floor at 3:45 p.m., looked up at the board and NYSE volume was around 1.5 billion shares. A few minutes after the bell, I looked up again and it was a little over 2 billion. Our CEO Duncan Niederauer was asked about it by TV reporters on the floor, and he said the volume concentration on the close often is indicative of fund redemptions.
All I know is that I've never seen anything like this.
DT -- Thanks, and LOL about the "nickel" tour. I don't want to overpromise. Time spent with me is either priceless or worthless; you'll have to be the judge. I look forward to it.
by Ray Pellecchia on October 10, 2008 7:52 AM
I honestly feel that the adv person will not invest in this market until they feel secure in this country.
They are disappointed by CEOs and their incredible salary packages, especially with those companies that are Financial and Insurance holding.
(as well, no one should be funding up the Oil Futures, this does not mean you shouldn't invest, however don't slaughter an already inflated nation with a weak economy)
Why don't the leaders in these sectors, instead of hiding... start talking to the people through TV ads. Tell the people they are going to take serious changes cuts, and insure safety in their markets to make them sound.
This just may be the key to off set this 24 hour Hype-Time News.
It is not up to the Federal Government to fix these issues. Companies need to reassure the people.
by dar on October 10, 2008 8:50 AM
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